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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."