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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.